BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market data for 2025

Take-up increases significantly compared to the previous year – significantly more large-scale contracts again

After a relatively subdued start to the year, the nationwide warehouse and logistics space market increased from quarter to quarter in 2025 and achieved take-up of just under 6.1 million m² for the year as a whole. This corresponds to a significant increase of almost 14% compared to the previous year. The logistics market is thus holding its own in a weak economic environment and is showing a positive development over the course of the year. Nevertheless, the deviation from the ten-year average is 13%. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Overall, more contracts were signed than in the previous year and, above all, a higher number of large-scale contracts were again recorded, which naturally have a strong impact on the overall result. The size category from 20,000 m² increased by an impressive 30% compared to the previous year. In this space segment, logistics service providers stand out in particular, accounting for almost half of the turnover in large contracts and thus above the ten-year average. This reflects the fact that many industries appreciate the flexibility of logistics service providers, especially in economically difficult times. In this context, it is also noteworthy that companies from the e-commerce sector are much more active in the market again, but also often have their business handled by logistics service providers," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

The top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich) benefit somewhat more extensively from the higher market dynamics than the market as a whole. They increased by a good 15% compared to the previous year and closed the year with a combined take-up of just over 2.2 million m², which, however, fell short of the 10-year average by 12%. Compared to the year Frankfurt am Main, 16 January 2025

In 2024, almost all markets will increase, in some cases significantly, with only Cologne remaining below its above-average previous year's result. Frankfurt achieved the highest result with 464,000 m² (+14% compared to 2024) and is ahead of Berlin, which also exceeded the 400,000 m² mark with 425,000 m². Düsseldorf moved up to third place with an impressive take-up of 335,000 m² (+5%), relegating Hamburg (310,000 m²; +19%) and Leipzig (270,000 m²; +22%) to second place. Munich increased by 26% to 266,000 m², while Cologne recorded a decline of 33% to 173,000 m² due to the limited space available. In addition to these locations, the polycentric Ruhr area also achieved an excellent result with 637,000 m², which corresponds to an increase of 78% compared to the previous year and 10% compared to the average.

In terms of the distribution of take-up by sector, logistics service providers are at the top of the ranking by a clear margin (just under 41%). They increased significantly compared to the previous year (+55%) and achieved an above-average result of around 2.5 million m², to which numerous large-scale deals in particular made a substantial contribution. The manufacturing companies, which were very strong in the previous year, demanded less space in 2025 and accounted for a share of just over 27%, while retail companies are again above the values of the two previous years in absolute figures and contribute a further 23% to total sales.

In the course of the year, the rent level has risen slightly in most locations, both at the peak and on average. In the case of prime rents for logistics space, the increase amounts to an average of 3.8% across the top markets. Munich remains by far the most expensive market – here, the prime rent rose to €11.25/m² in the fourth quarter (+7% compared to the end of 2024). In Frankfurt, €8.80/m² (+11%) is to be applied, in Düsseldorf €8.70/m² (+2%) and in Hamburg it remains unchanged at €8.50/m². While Berlin rose slightly to €8.25/m², the level in Cologne rose by 6% to €8.20/m², which means that the top rent in the cathedral metropolis also exceeded the €8/m² mark. In Leipzig, on the other hand, it fell to €5.70/m² at the beginning of the year. In addition, the prime rent in the Ruhr area is quoted at €8.00/m² (+5% compared to 2024). Average rents also increased in almost all markets, which corresponds to an average increase of 5.7% compared to 2024. Frankfurt am Main, 16 January 2025

Perspectives

Despite the lack of economic tailwind, the nationwide logistics market developed very positively in 2025 and increased from quarter to quarter. For 2026, it can be assumed that the general conditions will remain quite challenging, especially in the first half of the year. The geopolitical conflicts that exist worldwide are on the rise and are having an impact on international trade flows, among other things. In addition, the erratic US trade policy with changing customs regulations remains a factor of uncertainty for medium and long-term planning and investments.

At the national level, economic development is expected to be stimulated by the special funds for infrastructure and climate neutrality as well as the financial leeway for defence spending. There is already increased demand from the armaments and defence segment, which should intensify from the second half of the year. In addition, reforms are expected to strengthen the business location, which should also have a positive effect on business sentiment.

"Overall, from today's perspective, at least a stable development in take-up can be expected for 2026, which is likely to gain momentum in the course of the year. In some markets, however, the limited supply of space could again have a limiting effect," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summarising the further outlook.

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