Return of major deals in the European logistics real estate markets

Take-up in the six core markets for logistics properties1 increased by 3% year-on-year to 19.4 million m² in 2025 due to the return of major deals. However, the volume remained below the 10-year average. Despite an uncertain economic environment and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the European logistics real estate market was characterized by positive momentum in 2025. This is the result of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

User markets remain resilient despite challenging environment

In 2025, a differentiated market picture emerged, with developments in some cases divergent from one country to another. In a still volatile environment, the economic environment and geopolitical uncertainties prompted numerous companies in several European markets to postpone their leasing decisions for the time being.

"Nevertheless, several structural trends can be seen at the European level, including the return to large transactions with a significant increase in deals in the range of 20,000 to 40,000 m². There are also large differences in vacancy rates, ranging from 2% to 11% depending on the region. Rents continue to rise, especially in markets that are very tight on the supply side, such as Barcelona, Milan and Prague," says Craig Maguire, Head of European Logistics at BNP Paribas Real Estate.

However, behind this resilience there are significant differences that are directly related to local market conditions:

1 Germany, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Poland, Spain,

• UK: High momentum in the Midlands (Birmingham), which accounts for 40% of all transactions, with strong demand from the healthcare and defence sectors.
• Germany: Transactions over 20,000 m² increased by 30%, mainly by logistics service providers working for e-commerce.
• France: 4% decline due to economic and political uncertainties.
• Spain: Supported by GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025, the market almost reached the record high of 2022.
• Netherlands: Decrease in volume due to land shortages and regulatory restrictions; for the first time, more supply in existing buildings than in new buildings.
• Poland: After a subdued start to the year, take-up rose steadily in the second half of the year, and the vacancy rate fell slightly to 7.4% in the 4th quarter.

At the European level, the largest deals were recorded in France and the UK (all over 100,000 sqm), including two by Amazon in Chartres and Beauvais, and one by Marks & Spencer (120,000 sqm) in the north of England.

Recovery of the rental market: Prime rents continue to rise

In 2025, logistics rents rose by an average of 4.5% across Europe. This continued growth is due to the following three factors: the limited availability of land, very few speculative projects, as well as rising construction costs and higher demands on logistics facilities. This upward trend is expected to continue in 2026, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.

Investment market: sustainable recovery

With an investment volume of just under €45 billion in 2025, the market for industrial and logistics investments has returned to its pre-crisis level, recording an average Europe-wide growth of 11% compared to 2024. "This recovery is supported by the more stable financing environment, lower inflation and renewed investor interest in logistics real estate, which now accounts for a quarter of total European real estate investment, on a par with office real estate. However, performance across the continent remains mixed and shows significant differences between markets," said Craig Maguire.

The German and British markets account for almost 50% of the total investment volume. The British market alone, which has developed particularly dynamically, accounts for a third of all investments in Europe. These two markets benefited from large portfolio sales, as did Sweden. In Germany, market activity was rather subdued over the course of the year, albeit with a significant acceleration in the second half of the year, mainly due to portfolio sales. In Spain, a solid macroeconomic environment continues to support market activity.

Return of major deals and pan-European joint ventures

The year 2025 was marked by the return of large-scale deals in the European logistics investment market. Among the largest transactions were these:

• LondonMetric bought Urban Logistics' UK portfolio for €1.4 billion.
• Tritax Big Box bought an industrial portfolio from Blackstone worth €1.2 billion.
• Segro acquired a 370,000 sqm portfolio from Tritax Eurobox with locations in Germany and the Netherlands.

Several pan-European joint ventures also contributed to the market momentum and reflected the growing interest from international investors — including the partnership between AustralianSuper and Oxford Properties and the joint venture between AREIM and VGP.

Stabilisation of prime yields expected in 2026

In 2025, prime yields for logistics properties rose in some major European economies, ranging from 4.5% in Germany to 5.4% in Italy. By contrast, higher-than-expected long-term interest rates led to a slight rise in yields in France and Germany towards the end of the year. "Looking ahead to 2026, we expect a period of stabilisation with stable yields and a moderate increase in purchase prices, supported by sustained rental growth," concludes Craig Maguire.

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the real estate cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management and Property Development. The company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, Asia and North America. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

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About BNP Paribas in Germany

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Press contact:

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