BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q3 2026

Logistics take-up continues to rise – particularly high volume in the third quarter

Frankfurt am Main, October 12, 2026 – Demand in the nationwide warehouse and logistics market remains strong. After the first three quarters of 2026, take-up stands at 5.5 million m², an increase of 28% compared with the same period last year and a clear 9% above the ten-year average. Momentum has increased steadily over the course of the year, reflected in rising quarterly results. The third quarter, at just under 2.2 million m², was up another 23% on the second quarter and delivered the strongest result since the second quarter of 2022. This is the finding of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

Take-up continues to rise despite moderate economic growth, the Iran war ongoing since the end of February with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, higher energy prices and rising inflation, US tariff policy and the war in Ukraine. "The main drivers of the current momentum are, on the one hand, logistics service providers handling business for e-commerce companies from Asia as well as for long-established major corporations, and on the other hand companies in the defense sector. In addition, manufacturing companies that are optimizing their structures or expanding are generating substantial take-up. Overall, there are once again considerably more large-scale leases than in the same period last year, together with a high number of deals," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Strong increase in take-up outside the major logistics hubs

It is above all the locations outside the major logistics hubs that are posting a very substantial gain of 51% on the previous year and reaching the second-highest take-up of the past ten years. They score in particular with better availability of space – especially in the large-scale segment – and a more attractive price level. The situation is different in Germany's top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich), where a volume of just under 1.7 million m² was recorded. This corresponds to a decline of around 5% on the previous year, and the long-term average was missed by 8%. In some of these markets, space enquiries cannot always be implemented in full because suitable supply is lacking. The overall decline in construction activity is being felt here and is also reflected in a falling share of new-build space in take-up. Nationwide, that share has dropped to 55%, the lowest level of the past ten years.

Among the major locations, the Cologne market stands out in particular. At a current 247,000 m² it has more than doubled its previous year's result and, together with Hamburg (283,000 m²; +3%), which at least shows a slight increase, is the only major location to record a rise in take-up. Nevertheless, Frankfurt leads the ranking with 320,000 m² (-20%), ahead of Berlin (298,000 m²; -7%). Despite an above-average result of 202,000 m², Düsseldorf is down 11% on the previous year, and Leipzig, despite a very strong third quarter, also remains short of the previous year's level (199,000 m²; -12%). Munich is particularly affected by the shortage of space, is still waiting for large deals this year and, at 126,000 m², is a good 36% below the previous year. The Ruhr area, by contrast, achieved record take-up of 484,000 m², an impressive 36% above the previous year.

Take-up in the major logistics markets and in other locations, Q1–Q3 2026. (Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate)

Strong demand from logistics service providers

In the sector breakdown of nationwide take-up, logistics service providers stand out with a market share of almost 45%. On their own they account for 2.5 million m², the highest figure of the past ten years. As e-commerce companies increasingly have their business handled by logistics service providers, the share of trading companies remains low at only 15%. Manufacturing companies are also taking up an above-average amount of space and contribute 31% of total take-up.

Rents are rising in some locations

Both prime rents and average rents have risen compared with the third quarter of 2025. Across all locations, prime rents are up 4.3% and average rents 4.9%. Compared with the second quarter, rental levels have risen in particular in Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Cologne and the Ruhr area. Munich continues to record the highest rents, at a prime of EUR 11.25/m² (+7% versus Q3 2025). While the prime rent in Frankfurt currently stands at EUR 9/m² (+10%), Düsseldorf at EUR 8.85/m² (+4%), Hamburg at EUR 8.80/m² (+4%), Cologne at EUR 8.60/m² (+12%), Berlin at EUR 8.30/m² (+1%) and the Ruhr area at EUR 8.10/m² (+3%) remain in the corridor between EUR 8 and EUR 9/m². In Leipzig the prime rent is unchanged at EUR 5.70/m².

Outlook

The geopolitical environment, in particular the conflict in the Middle East, is expected to change little by the end of the year. The German economy is, however, picking up slightly, and the leading German economic research institutes have recently revised their forecasts for this year's gross domestic product upwards (1.3%). Alongside government spending on infrastructure, climate neutrality and defense, exports and industrial production in particular are increasing.

The nationwide logistics leasing market is currently highly dynamic. This is evident both in a very high number of leases overall and in a noticeably higher volume of large-scale leases from 20,000 m². It is above all this segment that makes the difference compared with last year's result. Whether the trend of rising quarterly results can continue in the remaining three months of the year remains to be seen after the high volume in the third quarter. Because speculative new construction has recently been lower, less space is available at short notice in the locations being sought. That has already limited take-up somewhat in some major logistics hubs and led to shifts toward other locations. "Nevertheless, the final quarter should remain dynamic, because current enquiries and large-scale leases already under negotiation confirm that demand is still high. Accordingly, the full-year result should clearly exceed last year's result of just under 6.1 million m²," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summing up the outlook.

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider that offers its clients a comprehensive range of services at every stage of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management & Solutions, Investment Management and Property Development. With more than 4,000 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own offices and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to play a leading role in the transition toward more sustainable properties that are low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible way, to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint, to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees, and to act as an active player in the real estate sector by building and promoting local initiatives and partnerships.

About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading provider of banking and financial services in Europe. The company operates in 64 countries and employs more than 180,000 people, including more than 146,000 in Europe. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully established itself on the market with a broad range of services from networked business units. Private clients, companies and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. BNP Paribas' broad range of products and services corresponds to that of an innovative universal bank.

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