BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes data on the logistics market for the 1st quarter of 2026

Nationwide take-up increases by 30% – lively logistics market with numerous major contracts

The nationwide warehouse and logistics market has made an excellent start to 2026. With take-up of 1.5 million m², it not only exceeded the previous year's result by an impressive 30%, but also the ten-year average by 3%. This is a very pleasing result, especially against the backdrop of the geopolitical and economic conditions, which builds on the continuous market recovery of the previous year. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"In the 1st quarter of 2026, the trends already observed last year will continue. A significantly higher number of contracts was registered than in each of the years after 2022, and significantly more large-scale contracts were concluded again. The space segment alone with contracts over 20,000 m² increased by an impressive 69% compared to the previous year. Overall, and especially in the case of large-scale contracts, logistics service providers are the strongest demand group. This often includes orders from the e-commerce sector that logistics service providers commission to handle their business," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

The top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich) achieved a combined take-up of 632,000 m², which corresponds to an increase of a good 25% compared to the previous year and is well above the average (+12%). The individual markets show different developments. The Cologne market achieved the highest take-up with an extraordinary record result of 152,000 m² (+375%) – driven by two very large leases. Hamburg follows in second place with 126,000 m² (+1%), Berlin secures third place with 107,000 m² (+39%) and Frankfurt also exceeds the 100,000 m² mark with 104,000 m² (+65%). After record take-up in the previous year, Düsseldorf recorded a minus of 35%, but still achieved an above-average result of 66,000 m². While Munich grew by 73% to 57,000 m², the momentum in Leipzig was still low in the 1st quarter (20,000 m²; -73%). In addition, the Ruhr region also recorded a strong start to the year with 120,000 m² (+52%).

In terms of the sectoral distribution of take-up nationwide, the logistics service providers mentioned at the beginning stand out. With a market share of just under 46% or over 700,000 m², they achieve the highest absolute result of the past ten years, which is still slightly higher than in the boom year of 2022. Although manufacturing companies (23%) and retail (19%) are also demanding more space than in the 1st quarter of 2025, they are each quite far from their long-term average. This also shows that many companies from these sectors make use of the services of logistics service providers, especially in economically difficult times, in order to be able to react flexibly to market requirements.

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH

In the 1st quarter, the rent level increased again slightly in some locations. In terms of prime rents, Berlin (€8.30/m²; +1%) and Hamburg (€8.80/m²; +4%) each recorded an increase compared to the end of 2025. However, Munich is still the undisputed leader in the distribution at €11.25/m², followed by Frankfurt and now Hamburg with €8.80/m² each. Düsseldorf (€8.70/m²), Cologne (€8.20/m²) and the Ruhr region (€8.00/m²) are also expected to pay at least €8.00/m². Only in Leipzig is the price level significantly lower at €5.70/m². Compared to the previous year, prime rents have risen by an average of a good 4% across the top markets, while average rents have risen by 5% on average.

Perspectives

The nationwide warehouse and logistics market started the year with the best take-up result since 2022, proving how robust the rental market is despite the current challenges. Geopolitical risks have increased again with the outbreak of the Iran war, and the impact on the economy from rising energy prices, rising inflation rates and changes in trade flows and supply chains depend on the further course of this conflict. In addition, US customs policy remains a factor of uncertainty.

On the other hand, growth impulses for the German economy are to be expected from the investment packages for infrastructure and defense, from which the logistics market in particular should benefit. In addition, it can be assumed that the expansion of Asian e-commerce companies will continue and increasingly extend to regions other than North Rhine-Westphalia.

Due to the restrained speculative construction activity in the recent past, the availability of space is likely to come back into focus in some market areas. While there is a supply surplus in markets such as Leipzig, demand in other logistics hubs such as Frankfurt or Munich is limited by too little space available at short notice, which is also likely to have an impact on rental prices.

"From today's perspective, take-up in excess of the 6 million m² mark is again expected for 2026 as a whole. Since the start of the year is often still somewhat subdued and the quarterly results tend to increase over the course of the year, the previous year's figure of 6.1 million m² should be exceeded," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summarising the further outlook.

Press contact:

Chantal Foam – Phone: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com

Pia Ewald – Phone: +49 (0)69-298 99-941, Mobile +49 (0)160-905-800-19, pia.ewald@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the real estate cycle: transaction, consulting, valuation, property management, investment management and property development. With 4,000 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own offices and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to take a leading role in the transition to creating more sustainable properties that are low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible way, to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint, to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees, as well as to be an active player in the real estate sector and to build and promote local initiatives and partnerships.

Further information: www.realestate.bnpparibas.com/

About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading provider of banking and financial services in Europe. The company operates in 64 countries and employs almost 178,000 people, including more than 144,000 in Europe. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully established itself in the market with a wide range of services from networked business units. Private, corporate and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. BNP Paribas' broad range of products and services is equivalent to that of an innovative universal bank. www.bnpparibas.de