BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market data for the first three quarters of 2025

Take-up increases significantly year-on-year

By the end of the 3rd quarter, the nationwide logistics market had achieved take-up of 4.3 million m², exceeding the previous year's result by around 10%. After a somewhat subdued start to the year, the market picked up in the course of the year and increased take-up in the following quarters to 1.5 million m² in the second quarter and 1.6 million m² in the third quarter. Against the backdrop of the still weak economic environment, this result can be seen as very positive – even if it still deviates by 14% from the ten-year average. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Since the second quarter, there has been more activity and a better mood on the part of companies on the market than in the weak previous year. This is reflected, among other things, in a higher number of large-scale contracts and an increasing number of applications for space. It is noteworthy that there is also more demand for space from the e-commerce sector," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

It is mainly the top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich) that have increased significantly year-on-year with an increase of 27% and, with a total of just under 1.8 million m², are only 4% below their long-term average. Frankfurt clearly leads the ranking with take-up of 399,000 m² (+31% compared to the same period last year) and relegates Berlin (320,000 m²; +48%) and Hamburg (276,000 m²; +55%) to second and third place despite significant increases in take-up. At 227,000 m² or +19%, Düsseldorf also recorded a significant increase compared to the same period last year and was the only major logistics hub to achieve a result of 24% that was noticeably above the ten-year average. Leipzig grew by 24% to 226,000 m², and Munich also benefited from larger deals in the third quarter, resulting in a significant increase of +72% and an average take-up of 198,000 m². Cologne has not yet been able to build on the high result of the previous year and is the only top location to record a minus compared to the previous year (118,000 m², -42%). Thanks to a number of larger deals, the Ruhr region is around 57% above the same period last year with take-up of 357,000 m² and is already at the level of annual take-up in 2024 at the end of September.

The most important demand group in the current period under review is logistics service providers. With a share of 41% of take-up, they are well ahead of the other sectors and achieve an above-average take-up result in absolute figures. Numerous large-scale contracts – including from companies in Asia – have contributed to this development. Since they also handle the business of trading companies, among other things, this puts the still comparatively small share of this industry of just under 21% into perspective. The production companies, which were very strong in the two previous years, are now close to their long-term average with a current share of 30%.

Rents rose slightly again in some markets in the third quarter. Compared with the previous year, the increase in prime rents was 2.4% on average across all locations. At €10.70/m² (+2%), Munich continues to be by far the most expensive market. Frankfurt rises to €8.50/m², reaching the level of Düsseldorf and Hamburg. While 8.20 €/m² is achieved at its peak in Berlin, the top rent in the Ruhr area has climbed to 8 €/m². In Cologne, the prime rent rises by 3% to €7.90/m², and in Leipzig, €5.70/m² remains unchanged. Average rents have also risen, with an increase of 3.9% year-on-year and on average across all major locations.

Prospects

The nationwide logistics market is currently in solid shape, defying the still challenging conditions. In addition to the lack of economic tailwind as well as the various geopolitical crises and armed conflicts, US customs policy also remains a factor of uncertainty for companies.

On the other hand, the German special funds for infrastructure and climate neutrality as well as the financial leeway for defence spending have had a positive effect on business sentiment, but the delay in concrete investments is expected to provide stimulating impulses, especially from 2026 onwards. In addition, positive effects are expected from the implementation of necessary reforms to strengthen the business location, so that higher economic growth is expected from next year onwards and, in the course of this, higher take-up of space again. Increased demand is already being recorded from the armaments and defence segment in particular – a trend that is expected to intensify from next year.

"For the current year, it can be assumed that demand will continue to develop robustly until the end of the year and that take-up is likely to remain stable at least at the level of the past two quarters. However, the final quarter can often increase significantly again, so that there is a realistic chance that total take-up will approach a volume of 6 million m² somewhat more strongly again. A broad increase in sales outside the major logistics strongholds would be an important prerequisite for this. However, the weak previous year's result of 5.3 million m² was to be significantly exceeded. In terms of rental prices, further slight upward adjustments are possible, especially in markets with a limited modern supply of space," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summarising the further outlook.

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