BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market figures for the first quarter of 2023 - Cologne logistics market: moderate result due to small-scale market activity

The overall good demand situation was not yet reflected in the take-up of space on the Cologne logistics market in the first quarter of 2023: with a total result of around 30,000 m², the interim result is a good 45 % below the long-term average. This is the result of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"However, the fact that comparable starting quarters were recorded in 2015 with 28,000 m² and 2016 with 35,000 m² and that the results from 2019 and 2020 were even lower at 22,000 m² each shows that the current volume is not an exceptional value. Rather, on the supply side, it reflects the bottleneck in the large-space segment and, on the user side, the somewhat more cautious attitude in the wake of the economic conditions. Another factor is the lack of new construction and owner-occupier contracts in the quarterly results, which often drive up the volume," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. Both the prime rent (€7.20/m²) and the average rent (€5.20/m²) continued to rise by around 20% and 6% respectively over the last 12 months.

Mainly deals up to 5,000 m², retail sector in the lead

To date, take-up has primarily consisted of deals of up to 5,000 m², most of which are attributable to retail companies. Overall, the retail sector generated a good 73% of the volume, and almost two thirds of market activity took place in the size categories up to 5,000 m². While a good 80% of the result in the same period of the previous year was achieved with deals above this level, only one rental agreement for more than 11,000 m² was registered in the large-space segment in the first three months of 2023. Logistics service providers have accounted for a further 13% of take-up in the year to date and industry for just under 10%. In addition, demand behaviour within the Cologne logistics region is increasingly showing a trend towards compromises being made in favour of well-connected peripheral locations for reasons of space availability.

"Although the letting momentum on the Cologne logistics market was manageable in the first quarter, it only reflects the requests that could ultimately be realised. One of the reasons why potential occupiers are not always successful is that fewer speculative project developments are being initiated due to the economic uncertainties. In addition, the few new developments are still in the planning phase or under construction, meaning that they do not provide any relief for short-term letting projects. Against the backdrop of the improving economic outlook, it is therefore less the demand side and more the supply bottleneck that should be cited as a limiting factor for the development of take-up over the course of the year. As a result, rents are also likely to continue to rise slightly," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com
Melanie Engel - Tel: +49 (0)40-348 48-443, Mobile: +49 (0)151-117 615 50, melanie.engel@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate
BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international property services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 5,300 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to play a leading role in the transition to creating more sustainable real estate that is low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible manner; to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint; to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees; and to be an active player in the property sector, building and promoting local initiatives and partnerships.

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About BNP Paribas in Germany
BNP Paribas is a leading European bank with an international reach. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully positioned itself in the market with 12 business units. Private clients, companies and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. www.bnpparibas.de