BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market figures for the first quarter of 2023 - Subdued start to the year on the Berlin logistics market

Berlin, 20 April 2023 - The Berlin logistics market got off to a subdued start to the new year with take-up of 55,000 sqm. The current result is significantly below the record result from the previous year (487,000 m²; -89%), which was distorted upwards by the TESLA gigafactory. But even without this special effect, the decline would still be just under 66%. Meanwhile, the long-term average was missed by 60 %. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Although the current economic uncertainties are leading some companies to adopt a more cautious stance overall, they should not be seen as the sole factor behind the subdued start to the year. For example, the high letting performance of the record year 2022 has noticeably reduced the amount of available space. In addition, an increasing number of tenants are exercising their lease options due to the high level of rents, which is reducing fluctuation," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.  Both prime and average rents have remained stable at a high level of €7.80/m² and €6.50/m² respectively since the beginning of the year.

Number of contracts signed only slightly below average

The fact that take-up is currently comparatively low is also related to the fact that, for the first time in the long-term analysis, no contracts were signed in the segments above the 8,000 sqm mark in the first quarter of 2023. Unlike the take-up of space, the number of more than 20 registered deals is only slightly below the long-term average. As is usual in Berlin, the distribution of take-up across sectors is led by retail companies, which currently account for around 59% of the result. The largest deal in the sector is the letting of 5,900 m² by an express food delivery service in Ludwigsfelde. Other significant shares are accounted for by the collective category of other (20%) and production companies (18%). Meanwhile, logistics service providers achieved a conspicuously low take-up of space. Only one deal is attributable to this sector, making it the weakest start to the year to date in a long-term comparison.

Prospects

"The interim results after the first quarter already indicate that the Berlin logistics market in 2023 will probably not be able to match the records of the previous year. Even though the economic outlook is likely to brighten somewhat in the coming months, the shortage of space will probably result in a below-average result. Short-term availability of space in the coming quarters is likely to result primarily from the fact that companies are reviewing their distribution networks in light of the changed economic conditions, meaning that larger spaces will occasionally come onto the market for subletting and re-letting. For the time being, the most likely scenario for both prime and average rents is stabilisation at the current high level," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com
Melanie Engel - Tel: +49 (0)40-348 48-443, Mobile: +49 (0)151-117 615 50, melanie.engel@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate
BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international property services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 5,300 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to play a leading role in the transition to creating more sustainable real estate that is low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible manner; to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint; to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees; and to be an active player in the property sector, building and promoting local initiatives and partnerships.

Further information: www.realestate.bnpparibas.com/

About BNP Paribas in Germany
BNP Paribas is a leading European bank with an international reach. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully positioned itself in the market with 12 business units. Private clients, companies and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. www.bnpparibas.de