Supply on the Berlin logistics market slows turnover

BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes market figures for Q2 2023 - Supply on the Berlin logistics market slows take-up

Given the exceptional result across all locations (709,000 m²) due to the Tesla megadeal and other major deals, it is not surprising that the Berlin logistics market fell short of the previous year's figure (-82 %). With take-up of around 125,000 m² and only one deal above the 12,000 m² mark, market activity at the current mid-year point was significantly smaller than in 2022, particularly in the large-scale segment, according to an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Nevertheless, the result does not represent a downward trend: In the last five years, around 135,000 m² were already registered in 2020 and around 131,000 m² in 2018 in the 130,000 m² range, which puts the result into perspective somewhat," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.  The development of prime rents shows that supply, rather than demand, is the limiting factor: At the peak, around 4% more can be paid than 12 months previously, making Berlin (€7.80/m²) the third most expensive market, just behind Hamburg (€7.90/m²) and Munich (€9.50/m²).

Highest share of take-up in retail and small spaces

As already indicated, the lack of supply is reflected in a rather unusual distribution of take-up across the different size categories. Accordingly, the smallest category of space up to 3,000 m² is responsible for the highest contribution to the total volume at just under 32 %. In line with this, the majority of the result was realised in the core area, which suggests that smaller city centre spaces are the focus of demand due to their proximity to the sales market.

In terms of sectors, retail companies are at the top of the ranking with a share of a good 49%, with Bär und Ollenroth (12,700 m²), the largest contract in the first half of the year, primarily responsible for this. Logistics service providers account for almost 23% and production companies for around 8%. No owner-occupier deals have been recorded to date, and lettings in new buildings or projects accounted for just under 46% of market activity.

Prospects

"The result on the Berlin logistics market confirms the observation that there is currently hardly any large-scale space available. Accordingly, market activity has initially shifted in favour of smaller spaces with good transport connections within the metropolitan region over the past 12 months. Measured by the requests on the demand side, a significantly higher take-up of space would have been possible. However, the fact that the segment of speculatively constructed new-build space can currently only provide relief in individual cases means that market momentum is currently increasingly limited to smaller-scale lettings in existing properties. Nevertheless, as the overall economic situation brightens, the volume of lettings is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Rental prices will remain under pressure and are likely to continue their upward trend in the coming quarters," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international property services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 5,300 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

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