BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes investment market figures for Q1 2026

Logistics investments remain below the previous year overall, individual deals and smaller volumes with high momentum

 With an investment volume of just under €1.2 billion, the logistics investment market is off to a moderate start in 2026. The result is around 11% below the previous year's volume and, at -40%, deviates noticeably from the ten-year average. Overall, however, more transactions were registered than in the previous year. Market activity was particularly lively, with investments of up to €25 million, so that the average volume per deal fell to a low level of €19 million (Q1 2025: €22 million). It is also noteworthy that, in contrast to the 1st quarter of the previous year, a deal in the three-digit million range has already been recorded with the sale of the Mercedes Benz logistics center in Bischweier. This is the result of the analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Individual deals achieve a comparable investment volume as in the previous year and once again crack the billion mark. This means that their result, which deviates by just under 7% from the ten-year average, can be seen as very positive, especially against the backdrop of the current market environment," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. Investments through portfolio sales, on the other hand, have fallen (-31% compared to Q1 2025) and contribute only 12% to the overall result.

Net prime yields remained constant in the 1st quarter after rising by 25 basis points over the course of 2025 to 4.50% in the A locations and 4.70% in Leipzig.

Uniform distribution by size class

In the major logistics markets of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart, only around €184 million has been invested in logistics properties so far (-37% compared to Q1 2025), which is a low figure even in a long-term comparison. Cologne and Berlin each achieve a volume of around €50 million, while the other markets remain significantly lower. This interim result is mainly due to an insufficient supply of corresponding purchase opportunities in the top markets, which are generally still in high demand.

The distribution of investments by size class shows a fairly homogeneous picture, with a range between a good 10% market share for the smallest segment up to €10 million and 27% for sales between €25 million and €50 million. The high share of rather smaller transactions of up to € 50 million in market activity (64%) is striking. The larger deals that generate volume, on the other hand, are only concluded selectively in the current market environment.

In terms of the origin of capital, foreign buyers increase to a share of 67% and invest a slightly higher volume than in the same period last year. Domestic investors, on the other hand, were still somewhat more cautious (-29%) and thus deviated much more from their ten-year average (-54%) than foreign investors (-29%).

Perspectives

As in the previous year, the logistics investment market showed high momentum in the 1st quarter of 2026 in terms of individual deals and rather smaller sales volumes. However, deals with medium and high investment volumes are crucial for a noticeable increase in overall earnings.

It is currently difficult to predict the further development of the market, as the general conditions have become noticeably worse again with the outbreak of the Iran war. The longer the military conflicts in the Middle East continue, the greater the impact on energy prices and the global economy. In addition to other geopolitical conflicts, erratic US policy also remains a major factor of uncertainty.

"Positive signals, on the other hand, come from the overall robust user market and the impetus expected in the course of the year from the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures as well as from the financial leeway for defence measures. If the Iran war ends soon, economic development in Germany is expected to brighten up in the course of the year. In addition, the logistics investment market should benefit from the fundamentally growing interest in the asset class as well as the high strategic importance of functioning supply chains," says Christopher Raabe.

Press contact:

Chantal Foam – Phone: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com

Pia Ewald – Phone: +49 (0)69-298 99-941, Mobile +49 (0)160-905-800-19, pia.ewald@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services at all stages of the real estate cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 4,000 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to take a leading role in the transition to creating more sustainable properties that are low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible way, to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint, to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees, as well as to be an active player in the real estate sector, and to establish and promote local initiatives and partnerships.

Further information: www.realestate.bnpparibas.com/

About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading provider of banking and financial services in Europe. The company operates in 64 countries and employs almost 178,000 people, including more than 144,000 in Europe. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully established itself on the market with a wide range of services from networked business units. Private customers, companies and institutional customers are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. BNP Paribas' broad range of products and services is equivalent to that of an innovative universal bank. www.bnpparibas.de