Logistics investment volume slightly below previous year's level

BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes investment market figures for the second quarter of 2025

The logistics investment market achieved a volume of €2.8 billion in the first half of the year, slightly below the previous year's level (-2.2%). Overall, the market is very lively, which is reflected in a significant increase in the number of deals compared to the two comparable periods of the previous year. However, portfolio transactions and thus large-volume deals are currently lacking for a higher investment volume. Against this backdrop, the current result deviates by around 20% from the ten-year average. This is the result of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"The single-deal segment alone achieved a very good result of €2.3 billion, which is a significant increase compared to the first half of the previous two years and a good 19% above the long-term average. Only in the years 2020 to 2022 was an even higher volume recorded at the half-year mark. In the portfolio segment, on the other hand, comparatively small packages have been recorded so far, meaning that its share remains at a very low level of almost 16%," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. 

While transactions in the triple-digit million range are still significantly underrepresented due to the small number of portfolio deals to date, the result of sales up to €100 million is particularly noteworthy: at around €2.5 billion, this class achieved the second-highest volume after the record year of 2022.

Net prime yields remained unchanged in the second quarter and continue to stand at 4.25% in prime locations and 4.45% in Leipzig.

High volume in the mid-price segment

The top markets contributed a total of more than €600 million to the half-year result, representing a 20% increase over the previous year and accounting for 23% of the total volume. Particularly noteworthy is the Düsseldorf market, which achieved a record half-year result of over €250 million.

When looking at the distribution of investments by size, the low share of large-volume deals (just under 9%) is striking. This contrasts with the three segments between €10 million and €100 million, which each achieved significantly above-average results with shares of 24% to 35%. Deals between €25 million and €50 million even set a new record with just under €1 billion.
Foreign investors accounted for 61% of the volume, which is above average when viewed over the long term.

Perspectives

The logistics investment market has generally shown fairly stable development in recent quarters. The very good final quarter of 2024 stood out somewhat, after which 2025 began somewhat more quietly, only to pick up again in the second quarter, which has now come to a close. 

Various factors are currently influencing the investment market, meaning that the market environment is likely to remain challenging in the second half of the year. Although the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures and the financial leeway for defence spending are providing positive impetus for the still rather sluggish German economy, which has already contributed to an improvement in sentiment, their effects are likely to be felt only after a time lag.

In addition, the erratic US trade policy with its far-reaching tariffs remains a major source of uncertainty for the global economy. The effects of the tariff policy and possible counter-tariffs are difficult to predict, and the frequently changing conditions are hampering corporate investment. Furthermore, the geopolitical environment remains uncertain due to increasing geopolitical crises and armed conflicts.

‘Against this backdrop, a similar development in logistics investments as in the previous year appears to be the most likely scenario. In particular, if the large-volume transactions currently in preparation, which were missing in the first half of the year, are successfully completed, a volume in the range of the previous year should be achievable by the end of the year – here it was around €6.9 billion,’ says Christopher Raabe.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum – Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Pia Ewald – Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-941, Mobile +49 (0)160-905-800-19, pia.ewald@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider offering its clients comprehensive services throughout the property cycle: transaction, consulting, valuation, property management, investment management and property development. With 4,000 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider. 

As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to play a leading role in the transition to more sustainable real estate that is low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible manner, to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint, to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees, and to act as an active player in the real estate sector and build and promote local initiatives and partnerships.

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About BNP Paribas in Germany

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