BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market figures for Q3 2023 - Berlin logistics market picks up in the third quarter

The result on the Berlin logistics market after the first three quarters must be viewed in a differentiated manner: On the one hand, the interim result of just over 231,000 m² contrasts with the exceptional result from the previous year (847,000 m²), which could not be repeated in this form. On the other hand, in the past three months the capital region was able to record the first major contracts by the logistics service providers We Log (35,000 m²) and LGI (30,500 m²) in Magna Park Berlin and achieve the best quarterly result of the year (106,000 m²). This is the result of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"The aforementioned major deals also boosted take-up in the new-build segment, increasing the market share in this sector from almost 46% at mid-year to 65%. Overall, however, the volume remains below average, primarily due to a lack of available space and the challenging conditions for project developments," says Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. As the supply-demand situation remains tense, rental prices rose again slightly in the third quarter at the peak (€7.90/m²) and on average (€6.70/m²) following a constant trend up to the middle of the year.

While the ranking of sector groups was led by retail companies in the first half of the year, logistics service providers moved to the top at the end of the third quarter with a share of almost 46%, driven by the two major deals signed by We Log and LGI. It is pleasing to note that, with take-up of 98,000 m², they almost reached their long-term average (-2 %).

Retail companies, on the other hand, are predominantly represented with smaller contracts in the current year, which means that they have to be content with second place and a contribution of just under 32 % to total take-up. The industrial sector also accounts for just under 8%.

In terms of size categories, the smaller spaces of up to 3,000 m² (around 32 %), which are primarily located in the core area, and the large new build lettings of 20,000 m² or more (a good 28 %) are the most significant. Following the numerous very large contracts last year, the letting dynamics on the Berlin logistics market are currently characterised by a much tighter supply situation in this segment. Even though two contracts for more than 30,000 m² have been signed in the last three months, there are no adequate offers of space for many of the properties sought.

In addition to these trends in the large-space and new-build sectors, momentum in the existing property segment is being hampered above all by the fact that extensions are now much more important than in recent years. Moreover, subletting, which is increasingly being observed, cannot provide a general solution to the short supply situation.

"Apart from big-box lettings, the demand trend in the segment of smaller, well-connected and high-priced logistics space close to city centres is continuing. These spaces in particular are likely to continue to exert pressure on prime and average rents in the future. However, stable economic and geopolitical conditions remain the main prerequisites for generally high demand momentum in the coming quarter," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international property services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 5,300 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

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About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading European bank with an international reach. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully positioned itself in the market with 12 business units. Private, corporate and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. www.bnpparibas.de