Noticeable market recovery with rising space turnover

BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes data on the logistics market for the first half of 2025

With space turnover of around 2.7 million square metres, the nationwide logistics market grew by just under 11% compared to the previous year. The second quarter was particularly buoyant, with turnover significantly higher than at the start of the year at over 1.5 million m². Nevertheless, due to the weaker first quarter, the result deviates by around 15% from the ten-year average. This is according to an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Overall, there is more activity on the market than in the previous year, which is reflected not only in pure space turnover, but also in a higher number of space requests and enquiries. The positive mood and confidence among companies are noticeably increasing, and more large-scale contracts are being signed again," explains Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

In the top logistics markets (Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich), space turnover totalled 1.1 million square metres, representing an increase of 26% compared to the weak first half of last year and only 8% below the long-term average. This means that it is primarily the large logistics hubs where turnover has risen significantly. Frankfurt leads the ranking with 251,000 m² (+29%), followed by Hamburg (220,000 m²; +68%) and Berlin (210,000 m²; +39%). Düsseldorf benefited from large contracts and achieved a record result for the first half of the year with 166,000 m² (+80%). While Leipzig (87,000 m²; -1%) deviates only slightly from the previous year's result, Cologne recorded a significant decline (85,000 m²; -42%) due to a strong result in the previous year. Munich grew by 15% to 60,000 m² from a low level, and the Ruhr area increased by 5% to 201,000 m² in space turnover.

In terms of space take-up by sector, logistics service providers stand out with a very high share of just under 43%, which is significantly above the ten-year average in both percentage and absolute terms. Several large-scale deals in this segment contributed to this excellent result. Manufacturing companies achieved a similar turnover volume to the previous year at 29%, but remain well below their average. Retail companies, on the other hand, are noticeably more cautious and, at 21%, are contributing the lowest share to half-year turnover to date.

Prime rents largely stabilised in the second quarter, and even compared to the previous year, the average increase across all major locations is only around 1%. Only in the Ruhr area did prime rents increase, reaching €7.90/m² (+4%). The highest rents are achieved in Munich, where the top rate remains unchanged at €10.50/m². Düsseldorf and Hamburg follow with €8.50/m² each, while Berlin and Frankfurt are at €8.20/m². The Ruhr region now ranks ahead of the Cologne market, where €7.70/m² is still achieved in the premium segment. In Leipzig, the rental price level is lower at €5.70/m² at the top end. Nationwide average rents show greater growth compared to the previous year, averaging around 4% in the major locations. In the second quarter, average rents remained largely stable.

Perspectives

The German logistics market proved robust in the second quarter and benefited from a noticeable market upturn after a weaker start to the year. The number of contracts concluded rose significantly, and deals are also on the rise again in the large-scale segment. A similar development to that seen in the second quarter can generally be expected for the second half of the year, although various factors must be taken into account.

The still sluggish German economy is receiving positive impetus from the special funds for infrastructure and environmental measures and from the financial leeway for defence spending, although the effects of this are likely to be felt only after a time lag. This applies accordingly to the logistics market, which should benefit from the higher demand resulting from these measures – however, it remains to be seen how quickly this will actually be reflected in the market.

On the other hand, US trade policy, with its frequently changing tariff framework, remains a major source of uncertainty for the global economy. The effects of tariff policy and possible counter-tariffs are currently difficult to predict, so companies are tending to delay investment decisions. In addition, geopolitical crises and armed conflicts are currently on the rise.

Against this backdrop, it can be assumed that demand, particularly from the retail and industrial sectors, will only slowly pick up again. For the year as a whole, a result above the weak previous year (5.3 million square metres) appears very likely. If momentum in the large-scale segment continues to increase, the 6 million square metre mark could also be back within the target range," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, summarising the outlook.

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international real estate services provider offering its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the real estate cycle: transaction, consulting, valuation, property management, investment management and property development. With 4,000 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 23 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider. 
As part of its commitment to sustainable cities, BNP Paribas Real Estate aims to play a leading role in the transition to more sustainable real estate that is low-carbon, resilient, inclusive and conducive to well-being. To this end, the company has developed a CSR policy with the following four objectives: to improve the economic performance and use of buildings in an ethical and responsible manner, to enable a low-carbon transition and reduce the environmental footprint, to ensure the development, engagement and well-being of employees, and to act as an active player in the real estate sector and build and promote local initiatives and partnerships.
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About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading provider of banking and financial services in Europe. The company operates in 64 countries and employs nearly 178,000 people, including more than 144,000 in Europe. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully established itself on the market with a wide range of services from networked business units. Private customers, companies and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. BNP Paribas' broad range of products and services corresponds to that of an innovative universal bank. www.bnpparibas.de
 

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