Hamburg logistics market: number of deals up, but sales drivers missing

BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market figures for the second quarter of 2023 - Hamburg logistics market: number of deals up, but sales drivers missing

Hamburg, 26 July 2023

The result on the Hamburg logistics market at mid-year must be viewed in a differentiated manner: On the one hand, take-up in the first six months totalled around 165,000 m², almost 38% less than in the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, however, the increased number of registered transactions is a clear indication of lively market activity, although this is not yet reflected in the results. This is the result of an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"Deals of 20,000 m² or more, which are usually decisive for high take-up, were missing for a good result," says Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. The most significant contracts are the lettings to the TST Group in Neu Wulmstorf (19,400 m²), a retail company at the harbour (14,600 m²) and the IGEPA Group in Barsbüttel (13,600 m²), three contracts that are spread across very different sub-locations in the Hamburg market area.     The rental trend continues to be very dynamic, with prime rents increasing by almost 14% to €7.90/m² over the last 12 months.

While no major deals have been registered so far in the first half of the year, contracts in the mid-sized segments between 5,000 and 20,000 m² have dominated the market: taken together, almost two thirds of take-up was accounted for by categories behind these size categories.

In terms of sectors, the three most important demand groups each generated comparable shares of take-up, which emphasises the high attractiveness of the Hamburg logistics region for very different users. The retail sector accounted for the most deals and the highest volume, accounting for just under a third of the overall result. However, good market momentum in the smaller and medium-sized segments can also be seen among logistics service providers and industrial companies, which accounted for a good 29% and almost 27% respectively. It is also pleasing to note that smaller owner-occupier projects are being initiated time and again, particularly in peripheral locations, contributing a good 19 % (average for A-cities: 5 %).

Overall, the situation on the Hamburg logistics market is clearly reflected in the market figures: The increased number of deals speaks in favour of a good demand situation, while the very low volume per deal (just under 4,000 m²) can be seen as an indicator of the lack of supply in the large-space segment.

"The most important determinants on the supply side include, above all, the comparatively subdued developments in the new-build segment. There are currently hardly any speculative projects in the Hamburg logistics region. As a result, larger requests are rarely met with adequate supply at present. In view of the tight supply-demand ratio, a further increase in rents cannot be ruled out for the second half of the year despite the already high level," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com

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