Europe's parcel market facing wave of consolidation: growth is no longer enough

Lucerne, 21 April 2026. The European parcel logistics market is facing a new phase of consolidation. While the shipment volume in most markets is only growing in the low single-digit range per year, costs and requirements for infrastructure and efficiency are increasing significantly. "Growth alone no longer supports business models," says Rico Back, Managing Partner of SKR Beteiligungs AG. "In the future, competition will be decided by scaling, network effects and infrastructure."

During the pandemic, many parcel markets recorded exceptionally high, double-digit growth rates. After 2022, this dynamic has normalized significantly. In Germany, the parcel market is growing only moderately: For 2025, the industry association BPEX expects shipment volumes to increase by around two percent.

The strong volume growth had long masked rising costs. With the normalization, the competitive conditions are now changing fundamentally: efficiency, network density and range are moving into focus.

"Many providers are now realizing that their business model is no longer viable under the new market conditions," says Rico Back. "What worked in an environment of strong growth is now coming under pressure - because rising costs and higher requirements can no longer be compensated."

M&A wave shows new market logic

Since 2025, different forms of mergers - from mergers to acquisitions to joint ventures - have condensed into a clearly recognizable pattern in the European parcel market:

• Evri merges with DHL eCommerce UK (October 2025)
• FedEx and Advent announce investment in InPost (February 2026)
• DHL eCommerce and CTT have announced a joint venture in the Iberian Peninsula (closing is expected in May 2026)

"These are not isolated cases," says Rico Back. "Many companies are currently consolidating because the pressure is noticeably increasing. Size is thus increasingly becoming a prerequisite for profitability - no longer for its result."

Why the market is now consolidating

Several factors are driving consolidation. The development of infrastructure such as parcel stations, hubs and automated networks is so capital-intensive that many providers can hardly finance it on their own. At the same time, regulatory requirements, digitalization and the conversion of fleets are driving up fixed costs - and making economies of scale a decisive competitive factor.

Additional pressure is being created by platforms such as Amazon, which are further expanding their delivery structures and increasingly handling volumes themselves. At the same time, shipment volumes are growing due to new e-commerce platforms such as Temu or Shein - but often with significantly lower margins and higher operational requirements. For many providers, this increases volume, but not profitability.

"Without size, the increasing demands on infrastructure, technology and efficiency can hardly be met economically," says Rico Back. "For many providers, scaling is thus becoming a decisive factor in remaining competitive."

Providers without sufficient scale come under pressure

Providers without sufficient size and network coverage in particular are increasingly finding themselves in a difficult position: They are too big for specialized niches, but too small to realize real economies of scale.

"For many of these providers, the question is no longer whether they want to grow - but whether they can still grow at all under the current conditions," says Rico Back.

The course for the market structure is now being set

SKR assumes that the development is only in its infancy. The coming years are likely to be characterized by further mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships. "Providers who can neither scale sufficiently nor position themselves clearly in the market are coming under pressure," says Rico Back. "In the end, those who either have size - or a clear profile - will prevail."

Portrait photo of Rico Back, Managing Partner of SKR AG ( © SKR AG).

About SKR AG

SKR AG, headquartered in Lucerne, is an independent consulting firm with a focus on logistics, e-commerce, platform strategies and restructuring. Managing Partner Rico Back brings over 30 years of international experience in the parcel and logistics industry - including as CEO of the Royal Mail Group and the GLS Group. SKR AG advises industry, trade and investors on strategic decisions along the supply chain.

Further information: skr-ag.com

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