BNP Paribas Real Estate publishes logistics market figures for the fourth quarter of 2022 - Above-average take-up on the Hamburg logistics market

With take-up of 530,000 m² in 2022, the Hamburg logistics market achieved a good result in a long-term comparison, which is around 3% above the ten-year average. Although the previous year's very high figure was missed by around 17%, this is not due to a lack of demand, but rather a lack of available space, according to an analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate.

"In this context, no corresponding supply could be identified for some space requests. Despite changes in the general conditions, the distribution of take-up was fairly even across the four quarters of the year as a whole. A very limited supply coupled with high demand is also reflected in the very dynamic rental development. In the last twelve months, the prime rent has risen by 19% to €7.80/m² and the average rent has even increased by 24% to €6.20/m²," says Christopher Raabe, Managing Director and Head of Logistics & Industrial at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Retail by far the top performer

With a turnover share of a good 44%, retail companies will account for the highest sector share by a wide margin in 2022. The long-term average here is a good 31%. Logistics service providers follow in second place with a good 35%, although their share is well below average (10-year average: 43%). Once again, a number of large contracts were responsible for the very good take-up of space: contracts with a floor area of over 20,000 m² accounted for 36% of take-up. The very high proportion of new builds of just under 58 % is also a consequence of the shortage of supply in the larger space segment (10,000 m²). The long-term average here is just under 33 %. The most significant contracts signed include Airbus (29,600 m²), ALDI (42,500 m²) and Jysk (21,400 m²).

Prospects

"The macroeconomic uncertainties and the expected further tightening of interest rates will continue to affect all user markets and therefore also the Hamburg logistics market in 2023. However, the logistics markets proved to be comparatively resilient last year, as the main drivers of high demand (last mile, nearshoring, increasing freight handling, etc.) remain intact. The Port of Hamburg in particular should also benefit from the ramp-up of the Chinese economy, the resolution of supply chain problems and falling freight rates. Demand is also likely to significantly outstrip supply in the future. The first users have already cancelled transactions or concluded deals in locations that were previously of little interest. For many customers, availability now takes precedence over location due to the lack of available space. As no significant increase in supply is foreseeable from today's perspective, the strong competition for space will continue in the future. In conjunction with persistently high inflation and further increases in prime costs, there is much to suggest that rents will continue to rise," says Bastian Hafner, Head of Logistics & Industrial Advisory at BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH.

Above-average take-up on the Hamburg logistics market | BNP Paribas Real Estate

Press contact:
Chantal Schaum - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-948, Mobile: +49 (0)174-903 85 77, chantal.schaum@bnpparibas.com
Viktoria Gomolka - Tel: +49 (0)69-298 99-946, Mobile: +49 (0)173-968 60 86, viktoria.gomolka@bnpparibas.com
Melanie Engel - Tel: +49 (0)40-348 48-443, Mobile: +49 (0)151-117 615 50, melanie.engel@bnpparibas.com

About BNP Paribas Real Estate

BNP Paribas Real Estate is a leading international property services provider that offers its clients comprehensive services in all phases of the property cycle: Transaction, Consulting, Valuation, Property Management, Investment Management and Property Development. With 4,500 employees, the company supports owners, tenants, investors and the public sector in their projects thanks to local expertise in 30 countries (own locations and alliance partners) in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. BNP Paribas Real Estate is part of the BNP Paribas Group, a leading global financial services provider.

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About BNP Paribas in Germany

BNP Paribas is a leading European bank with an international reach. The BNP Paribas Group has been active in Germany since 1947 and has successfully positioned itself in the market with 12 business units. Private, corporate and institutional clients are served by around 6,000 employees nationwide in all relevant economic regions. www.bnpparibas.de